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Direct impacts

by H. Asbjørn Aaheim, Therese Dokken


The impact tables describe expected impacts in the eight regions of our GRACE model, related to a given climate change. They will give you a brief overview of impacts in each sector based on some of the available research.

First, climate changes are represented by changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 under the IPCC SRES scenario A2. This scenario describes "a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change" (IPCC, 2007). Based on maps used in the PESETA project, which derive their climate data from the PRUDENCE project, we have generated estimates of the expected changes in the two climate variables in each region. Second, in the tables there are descriptions of impacts by sectors represented in our macro-economic model. Each sector's share of total value output (as of 2001) is given in the second column. The third column is a short description of expected impacts of climate change based on available research, whereas the sources are given in the fourth column. For a full list of references, see the literature database. Note that the purpose of this exercise was to provide input to a macro-economic model.

Hint: You may view this information both ordered by region and by sector.

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