Impact table - Southern Europe

Agriculture

7

The positive CO2-fertilisation effects may be completely cancelled out due to negative effects of higher temperatures. A decrease in grain crop productivity is expected in the region, except in Slovenia. Drought and higher temperatures can have a negative impact on production of wine and olive oil.

(Bindi, Fibbi, & Miglietta, 2001; PESETA, 2007; Viner et al., 2006)

Services

33

Changes in the service sector are induced by changes in tourism, see "Tourism"

Forestry

<1

Increased drought and fire risk in the area. Apart from Slovenia, biomass is expected to decrease in the region.

(Fronzek & Carter, 2007; Giannakopoulos, Bindi, Moriondo, LeSager, & Tin, 2005)

Fisheries

1

 This sector is likely to be significantly affected by climate change, but the knowledge of biodiversity and ecosystem impacts is still limited. The level of socio-economic costs related to climate change is also uncertain, but are likely to be substantial for enterprises and communities highly dependent on costal and marine ecosystems.

(Alcamo et al., 2007)

Industry

51

The impact by climate change on the industry sector is mostly indirectly, such as through the supply of raw materials, intermediates, transport etc

Transport

5

Increased temperatures and numbers of extreme events may cause damage to both infrastructure and safety.

 (Alcamo et al., 2007)

Energy sectors

Crude
oil

<1

More solar energy will be available in the region while hydropower potential will be reduced along with bio fuel potential. Electricity generation based on non-renewables will be negatively affected due to decreased availability of cooling water. Increased demand for cooling in summer.

(Arnell et al., 2005; Cartalis, Synodinou, Proedrou, Tsangrassoulis, & Santamouris, 2001; Giannakopoulos et al., 2005; Lehner et al., 2005; Santos, Forbes, & Moita, 2002)

Coal

<1

Refin-
eries

1

Elec-
tricity

1

Gas

<1

Tourism

8

Gradual decrease of number of tourists in summer, and increase in spring and autumn. In general, less residents will leave the region for holiday abroad, and less foreigners will arrive. The total effect is expected to be negative.

(Giannakopoulos et al., 2005; Hamilton et al., 2005; Maddison, 2001; Perry, 2000)