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Model output

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by H. Asbjørn Aaheim, Wei Taoyuan

Introduction to the model-output

The tables show the percent change of main macroeconomic indicators of "shocking" the economies of today with temperature increases of +2 °C, +3 °C and +4 °C, as compared with the basic, present, economic performance. The level of the reported numbers thus represent the added loss from one year at different temperatures (the time derivative). This cannot be compared with the level of economic impacts in a scenario, where annual losses accumulate. However, patterns that occur when comparing regions, provinces and sectors are likely to be similar as if scenarios are run.

For each region, the tables show the level of GDP in the reference case and percent change in each case (+3 °C, +2 °C and +4 °C) by sector and province. GDP is the common indicator of  socioeconomic impacts of changes. However, welfare effects are closer related to private and public consumption. Therefore, the distribution of total consumption on commodities and among provinces is also reported in each case. Changes in the wage level (w) indicate how climate change may affect labour markets, by becoming more attractive to people (change above average) or where slacks may occur (change below average). Being the primary production factor most sensitive to climate conditions, the value of natural resources are reported for each case, both by sector and by province. Finally, the main drivers for  adaptation in macroeconomic equilibrium models are commodity prices, which are shown in each case. The numeraire is the price of real capital, which is 1 in all cases.



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