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Zierl and Bugmann, 2005
This excerpt has been prepared by Mareen E. Hofmann in the context of
the ADAM "Meta-analysis of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA)
assessments in Europe". Please note that the corresponding study was not
itself a part of the ADAM project!
Overview:
Zierl, B.; Bugmann, H.: Global change impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine catchments . Water Resources Research , 41(2): 13; 2005
You should take a look at this study if you are interested in:
economic sector:
environmental issue: Climate; Land use; Water resources region: European Alps
One sentence summary:
The paper investigates the impact of climate change and land-use change on hydrological responses in the Alpine catchments with a focus on analysing differences in the hydrological responses between different Alpine climate zones, between different climate and land-use scenarios as well as differences in the results of several global circulation models; main results include a projected substantial runoff regime shift across the Alps with rising temperature strongly affecting the runoff regimes.
Methodology:
type of study: Impact projection models(s): RHESSys - Regional hydroecological simulation system; HadCM3; CGCM2; CSIRO2; PCM scenario(s): Climate change scenario based on the IPCC SRES scenarios; Land-use change scenario based on the IPCC SRES scenarios
Main results:
1. Impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological processes in the Alpine catchments
• For all scenarios, increasing temperatures are projected to have a strong impact on runoff regimes via the impact on snow cover. • Overall, simulated results show a substantial runoff regime shift across the Alps, with specific differences depending on the climatic zone considered.
IPCC quotes:
[1] "It is likely that glacier retreat will initially enhance summer flow in the rivers of the Alps; however, as glaciers shrink, summer flow is likely to be significantly reduced (Hock et al., 2005), by up to 50% (Zierl and Bugmann, 2005)."
quoted from IPCC AR4 II, p.549-550
[2] "Climate change could have a negative impact on thermal power production since the availability of cooling water may be reduced at some locations because of climate-related decreases (Arnell et al., 2005) or seasonal shifts in river runoff (Zierl and Bugmann, 2005)."
quoted from IPCC AR4 II, p.556
© 2009 ADAM, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European climate policy
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