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Diaz et al., 2005
This excerpt has been prepared by Mareen E. Hofmann in the context of
the ADAM "Meta-analysis of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA)
assessments in Europe". Please note that the corresponding study was not
itself a part of the ADAM project!
Overview:
Diaz, J.; Garcia, R.; Lopez, C.; Linares, C.; Tobias, A.; Prieto, L.: Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures . International Journal of Biometeorology , 49(3): 179-183; 2005
You should take a look at this study if you are interested in:
economic sector: Health
environmental issue: Climate region: Madrid
One sentence summary:
The effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65 is examined, and time lags between temperature extremes, and maximum impacts are calculated.
Methodology:
type of study: Impact attribution models(s): ARIMA; GAM
Main results:
1. Indicator for impact of climate on mortality
• The daily maximum temperature was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality.
2. Winter extreme temperatures and their impact on the mortality of people older than 65
• For total mortality, the maximum impact occurred 7 - 8 days after the winter temperatures extreme. • For circulatory diseases, the lag was between 7 and 14 days. • For respiratory causes, two mortality peaks were evident at 4-5 and 11 days.
Conclusions:
• Compared to the summer extremes, the impact of winter extreme temperatures occurs over a longer term, and appears to be more indirect.
IPCC quotes:
[1] "Major determinants of winter mortality include respiratory infections and poor quality housing (Aylin et al., 2001;Wilkinson et al., 2001, 2004; Mitchell et al., 2002; Izmerov et al., 2004; Diaz et al., 2005)."
quoted from IPCC AR4 II, p.557
© 2009 ADAM, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European climate policy
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