Risk / damage maps
|hazard:||Drought, Flooding, Heat wave, Precipitation change, Temperature rise|
|by Nicola Lugeri, Marco Moriondo, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Reinhard Mechler|
In Europe, adapting to changes in the risk of extreme weather is high on the agenda. Losses from extremes, such as floods, droughts and other climate-related events, have risen sharply in recent decades; a rise that cannot be attributed only to increased exposure of economic wealth. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that anthropogenic climate change is likely to very likely to lead to increases in intensity and frequency of weather extremes. This is of concern to European policymakers. The recent EU White Paper 'Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for Action' has set out an adaptation strategy that, among other things, emphasises the role of disaster risk management. ADAM research has contributed significantly to improving the knowledge base, and identifying knowledge gaps, for managing the changing risks of climate change in Europe.
This section presents research on estimating today's and future flood and drought/heatwave risks. It builds on the results of workpackages 'A2.1 - An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe' which had the following main objective:
and 'A2.2 Projections of weather-related extreme event risks to 2025 and 2100' with the following objective:
The term risk has been defined in several ways in the natural hazard literature. The work here presented follows the generally accepted risk assessment procedure with "risk" understood as a function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure (see Chrichton, (1999) and Kron (2002)) as follows
Fig. 1 - The risk triangle
The main task of every operational approach to risk assessment, both in present conditions and in future scenarios, is the modelling of these components, given the constraint in data availability, resolution and consistency. We have produced maps expressed in absolute monetary terms and in relative terms as a ratio of GDP (note: these losses are not GDP losses) for flood risk and of drought/heat stress to agriculture according to specific models, as presented in the following sections.
Keywords: Risk assessment; Hazard; Exposure; Vulnerability; Risk Triangle
© 2009 ADAM, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European climate policy